Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Why Vick Is A Bad Pick


For those of you who have played Fantasy Football for a few years, you’ve probably noticed a trend in the way the top scorers seem to finish. For those that are new to the game it can be something that is easily overlooked.

Here on the Top 10 scorers based on ESPN Standard Scoring:

ESPN.com
1.       Arian Foster                       (313 pts)
2.       Mike Vick                            (300 pts)
3.       Aaron Rogers                     (292 pts)
4.       Tom Brady                          (289 pts)
5.       Peyton Manning              (279 pts)
6.       Philip Rivers                      (270 pts)
7.       Drew Brees                        (263 pts)
8.       Josh Freeman                    (246 pts)
9.       Matt Ryan                           (238 pts)
10.   Matt Schuab                      (237 pts)

That is a difference of a measly 4 points per week between Vick (the top scoring QB) and Schuab (the 9th best QB). The difference here is the fact that Vick is averaging a selection in the Top 6 overall while Schuab is going somewhere around 47th overall. The difference here is the fact that the difference in points between the #1 RB (Arian Foster) and the #10 (Ray Rice) was over 7 points last year. With nearly every team trying to move their running game into a committee system, owning one of the top RBs in the league can make or break your season.

Many will argue that the days of the RB, RB strategy in fantasy drafts are dead and gone, but the stats argue just the opposite. Even the difference between the #1 WR (Brandon Lloyd) and the #10 (Steve Johnson) was only about 2 points per week.

I’m not trying to say that Vick is not a great fantasy asset, I’m just proving the fact that his counterparts around the league are nearly as valuable and probably more likely to last over a 16 game season. So if a guy like Vick or Rogers falls to you in round 2 then grab him. But if not, wait until round 3 or 4 to grab yourself a top 10 QB and let someone else struggle to find a guy who will get him 20+ carries per game.

-X

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